It's time for Huddy to Stop Bunting

Last night, Tim Hudson pitched a gem against Clayton Richard and the Padres. And while he has been quietly building an excellent career, he has also been quietly putting up fantastic offensive numbers. I was watching his at-bats last night with a hope that - however unlikely it was - Fredi would refrain from calling a sac bunt when runners were on. In Hudson's first at-bat, he swung away with no runners on, hitting a sharp grounder to third. In his second at-bat, he fell to two strikes attempting to lay down a sac bunt before lining out to right field.

In both instances, he hit the ball squarely and fairly hard. And that game isn't anomalous for him. He's been on an offensive tear for a while. Since June 1st, Hudson has been one of the Braves' most potent offensive weapons in games he plays, hitting .292 with a .345 OBP and .375 SLG in 12 games and 31 plate appearances. Understandably, offensive contribution is a highly overlooked part of any pitcher's game. Pitchers have far fewer opportunities at-bat to even make an impact (Johnny Cueto leads this year with 62), and when they do get chances, they are horrible and/or asked to bunt.

But Tim Hudson has been making a strong impact. His solid June numbers have gotten exponentially better. Since the All-Star break, Huddy has posted a .357/.400/.500 slashline. Yes, this has only happened over 7 games and 16 plate appearances, but the offensive he has provided is still quite valuable. This year, according to Baseball Reference, Tim Hudson has accumulated 1.0 WAR from pitching, and .4 WAR from hitting. His value increases by 40% when you take hitting into account.

Yes, that is a small sample size. But to me, Hudson has shown enough skill that swinging away will be more beneficial than sac bunting. Sac bunts are rarely ever useful for a team, as demonstrated here, here, and here. Its true that sac bunting with pitchers might generally be the better way to go because they are so damn bad at hitting, but Hudson has been just a little better than pitchers in the league (hitting .130/.166/.162). Moreover, Fredi doesn't necessarily use the sac bunt wisely. This year, Hudson has attempted 7 sac bunts (not including ones where he gets two strikes and then must swing away). Of those, 4 were successful, and each one decreased the Braves probability of winning. According to Baseball-Reference, all of Hudson's "successful" sac bunts together managed a -10% Win Probability Added.

That all said, there may be times when Hudson should sac bunt. But those times should be very few and far between. According to this post at Baseball Prospectus, "any batter hitting below .075 should always sacrifice, while any batter hitting better than .243 should never sacrifice." But it all depends on who bats afterwards. On the Braves, its Michael Bourn. With Bourn's .292/.353/.428 slashline, Timmy would need to  hit at least roughly .175 (his 2012 batting average is .211) in order for sac bunts to be detrimental to run expectation. This may waver in late-game, high-leverage situations, but it would almost always be smarter to bring in a pinch-hitter than to sac bunt in that situation.

But I don't see Timmy getting a free pass to swing any time soon. Managers hate deviating from traditional baseball strategy. In fact, Fredi Gonzalez made it clear that he wants Hudson off the base paths. Someone should let him know that not all pitchers are created equal at the plate. Tim Hudson isn't Tommy Hanson, who has one hit the entire year, and taking the bat out of his hands is actually a net-loss for the Braves.

For Dan Uggla, Patience is a Virtue

Its been a tale of two first-halves for Dan Uggla his past two years with Atlanta. Every Braves fan remembers his horrendous first half last year. When July rolled around, Uggla was sporting a slash line of .178/.247/.340 to with 12 HRs, and 28 RBIs. Not something you'd pay someone even $62 to produce, let alone $62 million. Even his monster 2nd half could only bring his slash line to a career low .233/.311/.453.

Turn the calender over 1 year, and we see a completely different Dan Uggla. He is running away with lead in the All-Star voting for 2nd basemen, and leads NL  2nd basemen in WAR with 2.5 (which already matches his WAR total for the entirety of last year). He leads all 2nd basemen in OBP at .386, is tied for first with Cano in HRs, and is 2nd in wOBA (.367) and wRC+ (132), just barely trailing Robinson Cano in each.

	Through June 2011	2012
Avg	.178	.260
Obp	.247	.386
Slg%	.340	.471

So what accounts for the stark differences between the two first halves? Some of it is certainly luck. Uggla was ridiculously unlucky before the All-Star break last year, holding the lowest BABIP of all qualifying hitters in the majors at .187 - far lower than his current .326. So more of his hits are simply finding holes.

But luck doesn't tell nearly tell the whole story. Much of Uggla's higher BABIP is due to his quality of contact. His line drive rate has jumped to a career-high 20.6% from last year's career low 15.4%, and his ground ball rate has plummeted from 41.2% to 32.9%.

Watching Uggla everyday, its easy to see why his batted ball profile has improved to his career best: plate discipline. Uggla seems to be taking more pitches, having much longer at-bats, and avoiding looking like a flailing rhino swinging at curveballs in the dirt. Uggla, taking a leaf out of Larry Wayne's book, has been watching pitches with a much more discerning eye, waiting for hittable pitches in the zone before swinging. Last year, he swung at over 27% of pitches outside of the zone, by far the highest rate in his career. That number is this year is down to 21.6%, according to Pitch f/x. This extra discipline has translated into a superb 16.5% walk rate (compared to last years 9.2%) good for 4th in the MLB. The best news from this is that his career-high OBP, bolstered by his career-high walk rate, is unlikely to regress to much to his career averages. Walk rate is one of the quickest hitter's stats to stabilize - discipline (once you've learned it) doesn't really fluctuate.  Lets hope Dan Uggla's continued production brings us to the division title.

We need one.