It's time for Huddy to Stop Bunting

Last night, Tim Hudson pitched a gem against Clayton Richard and the Padres. And while he has been quietly building an excellent career, he has also been quietly putting up fantastic offensive numbers. I was watching his at-bats last night with a hope that - however unlikely it was - Fredi would refrain from calling a sac bunt when runners were on. In Hudson's first at-bat, he swung away with no runners on, hitting a sharp grounder to third. In his second at-bat, he fell to two strikes attempting to lay down a sac bunt before lining out to right field.

In both instances, he hit the ball squarely and fairly hard. And that game isn't anomalous for him. He's been on an offensive tear for a while. Since June 1st, Hudson has been one of the Braves' most potent offensive weapons in games he plays, hitting .292 with a .345 OBP and .375 SLG in 12 games and 31 plate appearances. Understandably, offensive contribution is a highly overlooked part of any pitcher's game. Pitchers have far fewer opportunities at-bat to even make an impact (Johnny Cueto leads this year with 62), and when they do get chances, they are horrible and/or asked to bunt.

But Tim Hudson has been making a strong impact. His solid June numbers have gotten exponentially better. Since the All-Star break, Huddy has posted a .357/.400/.500 slashline. Yes, this has only happened over 7 games and 16 plate appearances, but the offensive he has provided is still quite valuable. This year, according to Baseball Reference, Tim Hudson has accumulated 1.0 WAR from pitching, and .4 WAR from hitting. His value increases by 40% when you take hitting into account.

Yes, that is a small sample size. But to me, Hudson has shown enough skill that swinging away will be more beneficial than sac bunting. Sac bunts are rarely ever useful for a team, as demonstrated here, here, and here. Its true that sac bunting with pitchers might generally be the better way to go because they are so damn bad at hitting, but Hudson has been just a little better than pitchers in the league (hitting .130/.166/.162). Moreover, Fredi doesn't necessarily use the sac bunt wisely. This year, Hudson has attempted 7 sac bunts (not including ones where he gets two strikes and then must swing away). Of those, 4 were successful, and each one decreased the Braves probability of winning. According to Baseball-Reference, all of Hudson's "successful" sac bunts together managed a -10% Win Probability Added.

That all said, there may be times when Hudson should sac bunt. But those times should be very few and far between. According to this post at Baseball Prospectus, "any batter hitting below .075 should always sacrifice, while any batter hitting better than .243 should never sacrifice." But it all depends on who bats afterwards. On the Braves, its Michael Bourn. With Bourn's .292/.353/.428 slashline, Timmy would need to  hit at least roughly .175 (his 2012 batting average is .211) in order for sac bunts to be detrimental to run expectation. This may waver in late-game, high-leverage situations, but it would almost always be smarter to bring in a pinch-hitter than to sac bunt in that situation.

But I don't see Timmy getting a free pass to swing any time soon. Managers hate deviating from traditional baseball strategy. In fact, Fredi Gonzalez made it clear that he wants Hudson off the base paths. Someone should let him know that not all pitchers are created equal at the plate. Tim Hudson isn't Tommy Hanson, who has one hit the entire year, and taking the bat out of his hands is actually a net-loss for the Braves.

Rotation Woes

With Beachy going down on Saturday with a sore left elbow, the Braves' starting rotation, considered one of the deepest before the year started, is suddenly finding itself reeling. The organization is playing musical chairs with their pitchers - sending Medlen down to turn into a starter, jumping back and forth with what they were planning to do with him following his struggles and good starts by both Delgado and Minor, then finally bringing him back as a reliever.

The rotation as it currently stands is:
Hudson
Hanson
Delgado
Minor
Jurrjens

Besides Hudson and Hanson, everyone else is playing for his job.

Now that Beachy has been sidelined for a good while (and will probably need Tommy John), the Braves called up Jair Jurrjens to tryout in a spot start. Should his start go poorly (which I am predicting will happen given his pretty terrible results and peripherals in AAA), the  job could go either to Medlen or Teheran. Medlen was less than stellar in his 3 starts in AAA, pitching only 13.1 innings and posting a 4.73 ERA and a 4.93 FIP. Teheran hasn't been better. Coming off a phenomenal 2011 season, he seems to have regressed tremendously, with numbers far down across the board.

Delgado and Minor have also been disappointing this year, Although it has been really great to see both of them step up when they were pushed. But given that both seem to lose their great stuff from time to time and have problems consistently finding strikezone, I don't know that I feel comfortable with them manning the 3 and 4 spots for the entire rest of the year. But hey, maybe one or both will figure out how to harness their talents to produce more consistent results. If they both happen to find their groove, it would take a lot of pressure off the Braves Front Office, the management, and the offense. And they are certainly capable of it - when Delgado and Minor are on, it is fun to watch.